Arctic Biodiversity Congress 2018 Preliminary Program

Plenary program subject to change. Rooms have yet to be assigned. 

Six main themes guide the flow and organization of the Congress. These overarching themes will run concurrently throughout the Congress and will form the backbone for the Congress. These themes were identified in the Arctic Biodiversity Assessment recommendations for policy

     

CC5: Resilience and management of Arctic wetlands: a social-ecological systems approachpdf

Date: Thursday October 11, 2018

Location: Erottaja, ELY

Time: 13:30-15:00

Wetlands are crucially important for fostering and protecting biodiversity, and play an important role in the sustainable development of the Arctic in their relation to climate change, adaption, ecosystems services and livelihood for indigenous and local people. While a significant portion of the planet’s wetlands areas are found in the Arctic region, surprisingly little is known about their status, the relative success of management interventions, and of the efforts to regulate human activities that impact wetlands to protect them and the biodiversity they support. This session aims to get an overview of what is known about Arctic wetlands areas, clarify where key knowledge gaps are, and develop a social-ecological systems analysis to identify measures that can be expanded to better manage Arctic wetlands areas.

 

Chairs: David Schönberg Alm, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency; Marcus Carson, Stockholm Environmental Institute; Magnus Land, Stockholm Environmental Institute

Format: Series of presentations followed by moderated discussion

Presentations:

  1. Resilience and Management of Arctic Wetlands - a project overview: David Schönberg Alm, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and Magnus Land, Stockholm Environmental Institute pdf
  2. Resilience and Management of Arctic Wetlands - a phase 2 overview: David Schönberg Alm, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and Marcus Carson, Stockholm Environmental Institute pdf
  3. Arctic coastal wetlands – critical Arctic ecosystems with an uncertain future: Donald McLennan, Polar Knowledge Canada - Canadian High Arctic Research Station pdf
  4. Arctic Wetlands – an outlook from a global perspective, Tobias Salathe, Ramsar Convention on Wetlands pdf

 


Abstracts:

Resilience and Management of Arctic Wetlands - a project overview

David Schönberg Alm Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and Magnus Land, Stockholm Environmental Institute

As it is clear that knowledge about the status of Arctic wetlands, including, inter alia, the effectivness of management efforts, a CAFF project lead by Sweden was launched in 2017. In its initial phase, a scoping study has been carried out to enhance the state of knowledge on the status of Arctic wetlands and the effect climate change have on them. The stree stage project is aiming at producing policy recommendations to support measures and further develop management strategies to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services including reduction of anthropogenically induced greenhouse gas emissions, improve climate adaptation and explore possibilities for sustainable use, especially for indigenous peoples. There is a need to enhance engagement in relation to the roles and functions of Arctic wetlands as a resource to support sustainable development and resilience in the region, as well as to put the centre of attention on the conservation of biodiversity, adaptation and resilience of ecosystems and their services including climate change mitigation, as critical components of sustainable development and thereby emphasise the major role wetlands play.

 

Resilience and Management of Arctic Wetlands - a phase 2 overview

David Schönberg Alm Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and Marcus Carson, Stockholm Environmental Institute

In its second phase, the project is aiming to identify case studies, where good examples of management could provide a basis for effective policy interventions. This step could also identify a number of regional hot-spots and management opportunities. An overview of phase 2 plans of the CAFF project is presented, with a particular emphasis on urgent questions and potentially actionable insights.

 

Arctic coastal wetlands – critical Arctic ecosystems with an uncertain future

Donald McLennan, Polar Knowledge Canada - Canadian High Arctic Research Station

Although it is now well documented and accepted that the Arctic is warming at double the rate of southern latitudes, what is not well known is exactly how these dramatic changes are impacting Arctic biodiversity now, and how these ongoing and accelerating effects will interact to impact Arctic biodiversity in the future. In the Canadian Arctic, coastal wetlands range in size from small patches located along rocky and low relief shores, to medium sized ecosystems at the mouths of small rivers and in complex association with coastal lagoon systems, to extensive swaths at the distal ends of estuaries of major rivers. Compared to adjacent upland ecosystems, Arctic coastal ecosystems are highly productive and provide critical habitat for staging and resident waterfowl and shorebirds, for hunting areas for land based predators and raptors, as nurseries for coastal fish populations, and as rich seasonal foraging areas for important ungulates such as caribou and muskoxen. Coastal wetlands owe their existence and productivity to the deposition of nutrient-rich sediment from adjacent freshwater inputs and coastal processes, deposition that interacts with daily tidal inundation and the erosive and land building effects of coastal waves and currents. It is now becoming evident that, with climate-driven warming, almost all of these factors are changing. River discharge is increasing, is occurring earlier, and is transporting increasing amounts of sediment and nutrients as active layers deepen, thermokarst erosion increases, and river banks are increasingly subject to massive failure. In coastal areas sea levels are rising, sea ice has a shorter season, winds and storminess are increasing, and coastal landforms are failing at increasing rates. The uncertainty and complexity of these changes makes it very difficult to predict how they will interact to impact the productivity and distribution of coastal wetlands, making a strong case for the prioritization of these ecosystems for long term monitoring. This presentation will describe coastal wetland ecosystems in Ivvavik National Park along the Yukon Slope adjacent to the southern Beaufort Sea, and will describe the establishment of a long term monitoring program designed to track change in these important ecosystems. This work meets several of the ABC goals, in particular, the implementation of ABA policy recommendations around monitoring, the inclusion of global monitoring programs, facilitation of interdisciplinary discussions, and by increasing the visibility of CAFF and the Arctic Council as a leading voice of Arctic biodiversity research and monitoring.

Arctic Wetlands – an outlook from a global perspective

Tobias Salathe, Ramsar Convention on Wetlands

By the time of the Arctic Biodiversity Congress, the Convention on Wetlands publishes the “Global Wetland Outlook”, a science-based overview to summarize global wetland extent, trends and drivers of change; a guidebook to create awareness and concern; and a purposefully illustrated brochure to demonstrate specific steps how to maintain and restore wetland ecosystem services for our livelihoods and for sustainable development. The expert analysis provides many references and a rich bibliography – but not many illustrations of Arctic Wetland cases. Is it true that Arctic Wetlands suffer from a “Cinderella Syndrome”? The project on resilience and management of Arctic Wetlands focuses on the right spots to identify our main gaps in awareness, understanding and policy responses. What roles do different Arctic Wetlands play in global processes? Processes of climate-relevant emissions, freshwater flows and biodiversity support. Arctic Wetlands as habitats for specifically adapted species, of which a few are resident and many more migrating, of which a few are important parts of the livelihoods of Arctic peoples, and many more a significant part of the shared natural heritage of our Planet. Human land uses shaped Arctic Wetlands to some extent. How will the looming changes in land and sea uses and forestry modify Arctic Wetlands and their resources? What lessons can we learn from the first Global Wetland Outlook? Which are the perspectives that are likely to influence global balances and the trends that will go far beyond the Arctic?

CC4: Early warnings: approaches to measuring, modelling and assessing change in biodiversity

Date: Tuesday October 9, 2018

Location: Valtuustosali, City Hall

Time: 15:00-16:30

Determining, tracking and predicting the rapid changes underway in Arctic biodiversity is complex. This session explores new opportunities and approaches to measuring, modelling and assessing change across sub- to high Arctic species and ecosystems, and the implications for the identification of important areas, land-use planning, and management of species at risk.

 

Chairs: Deb Cooper, US National Parks Service; Erpur Hansen, South Iceland Nature Research Centre

Format: Series of 12 minute presentations followed by 3 minutes questions/answers after each presenter

Presentations:

  1. New assessment highlights climate change as a serious threat to northern ecosystems in Finland - IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE): Tytti Kontula, Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre pdf
  2. Extreme Temperature Prognoses for Russian Arctic Based on New Probability Modelling: Alexey Kokorin, WWF Russia pdf
  3. Predicting the future for endangered birds: Sirke Piirainen, University of Helsinki & Arctic Centre, University of Lapland pdf
  4. 135-year time series of Atlantic Puffin production is negatively correlated to sea surface temperature: Population control by temperature dependent survival of ectotherm sandeel prey? Erpur Hansen, South Iceland Nature Research Centre pdf
  5. An international network for large-scale tracking of seabirds in the Northeast Atlantic – SEATRACK: Hallvard Strøm, Norwegian Polar Institute pdf

 


Abstracts:

New assessment highlights climate change as a serious threat to northern ecosystems in Finland - IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE)

Tytti Kontula*, Minna Turunen§, Risto Heikkinen*, Linda Kartano*, Katariina Mäkelä*, Elisa Pääkkö# & Anne Raunio*. *Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre, P.O. Box 140, 00251 Helsinki, Finland; § Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, P. O. Box 122, 96101 Rovaniemi, Finland; #Parks & Wildlife Finland Metsähallitus, Jäämerentie 6, 99600 Sodankylä, Finland

By the end of 2018, Finland has classified all its habitat types according to their risk of decline and deterioration. This second assessment uses the new IUCN Red List Criteria of Ecosystems and is pioneering in its coverage – all habitats from the Baltic Sea to the highest northern mountains (‘fells’) are assessed with uniform criteria. The new assessment clearly shows the alarming progress of global warming, especially in the Finnish subarctic ecosystems. Together with Norway’s similar assessment, Finland paves the way with its subarctic RLE for a global Arctic RLE, contributing to the IUCN’s goal to have all ecosystems of the world assessed by 2025. The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Criteria were specifically applied here to a risk assessment of the fell area of Finland. In this area the interaction of climate change and intensive grazing by herbivores, particularly reindeer and geometrid moths, regulate the state of the vegetation. Both the impact of climate change and its interactions with grazing on the habitat types of the fell area were assessed by the fell habitat expert group. The risk assessment also utilized reindeer herders’ local knowledge and observations of weather events, climate and their impacts on nature. For a number of selected fell vegetation types, the potential risk of losing suitable climate space in the future is examined also as a separate research item. Here, the range of climatic conditions where the selected vegetation types currently occur were mapped, and this information was related to the changing climate conditions under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6., RCP4.5, RCP8.5, averaged for the years 2040–2069) based scenarios to assess the level of climate change -driven risks. The results provide supplementary material for the new Red Listing of Ecosystems in the high-latitude habitats. This presentation summarizes the key aims, methods and expected main results of the two missions described above. It fits into the Congress goal to relate the work of CAFF to other global processes (IUCN Red List of Ecosystems), to discuss implementation of ABA policy recommendation 13 (to increase and focus research efforts to better facilitate the development of ecosystem conservation and management). The presentation addresses the key ABA elements: the significance of climate change as a serious underlying driver of overall change in biodiversity and the necessity of taking an ecosystem-based approach to management.

 

Extreme Temperature Prognoses for Russian Arctic Based on New Probability Modelling

Alexey Kokorin, WWF Russia

Biodiversity conservation requires resilience-building measures addressing extreme temperature heat waves and other anomalies. It cannot be planned on the basis of routine prognostic modelling, which provides only growth of seasonal mean temperature. WWF is implementing long-term project of the German International Climate Initiative devoted to new protected areas and relevant climate adaptation measures in the Russian Arctic. Development of extreme temperature prognoses by pioneering probability modelling is a key element of the project. Probability means that we know how many very warm (4-70C above 1990-1999), hot (7-100C) or extremely hot (anomaly is >100C), e.g. May or June will be in 2030-s; 2050-s or 2090-s is a region. There calculations are for the first time completed by the Main Geophysical Observatory for temperatures and precipitations of six Russian Arctic regions for key months essential for biodiversity conservation, e.g. reindeer migration. The IPCC RCP8.5 scenario was used to get most conservative estimates. Specific features is revealed. In particular, percentage of very warm July-September periods in Yamal-Nenets Okrug is estimated as 5, 20 and 85% for 2030-s; 2050-s and 2090-s. Main effects are calculated for winter: 35% of hot winters in 2050-s; and 75% of extremely hot in 2090-s. As a whole, the region can be affected by dramatic changes after 2050. On the other hand, in Nenets Okrug of the Barents ecoregion high probability of extremes will be about 20 years earlier. Moreover difference in extremes between 2030-s and 2050-s is almost as large as difference between 2050-s and 2090-s, what may be explained by the suggestion that main changes of ice regime in Barents and Kara Seas are before 2050, with mainly free waters after 2050. As a whole, such features revealed for all regions from Barents Sea to Chukotka have practical implication for planning of adaptation measures aimed at biodiversity surviving. The given probability prognoses is significantly more robust basis for adaptation plans of Russian regions as well as National Adaptation Plan under the UN Paris Agreement.

 

Predicting the future for endangered birds

Sirke Piirainen, University of Helsinki & Arctic Centre, University of Lapland

My presentation introduces a method for predicting the future for endangered birds. Climate and habitat explain to a large extent the distribution and abundance of species but nowadays climate change and increasing pressure on land use are causing notable declines in various species populations, and even extinctions. Additionally, the joint effect of these factors has been proposed to only intensify in the future. Yet, the magnitude and mechanisms of these effects remain poorly known. From the cost-efficient conservation management point-of-view it is important to know which (currently common) species are in risk to become endangered in the future. To prevent species from becoming endangered we should also understand which factors are causing population declines. My research strongly supports the ABA recommendations of i) doing research on effects of stressors to biodiversity, with a focus on climate change and issues where knowledge is lacking, and ii) modelling future species range changes and developing quantitative indicators for stressors. In my research I use presence-absence data on 265 bird species to model their future breeding distribution areas. I use species which were observed in the common bird monitoring scheme censuses in Finland, Sweden and Norway during 1975-2015. In the analysis I use the ground-breaking concept of Hierarchical Modelling of Species Communities to build an ecological model that explains species occurrence. The model is unique in that it considers not only climate and habitat but also species traits such as migratory behaviour, taxonomic relatedness and the co-occurrence of other species. By adding various scenarios of climate change (increasing temperature) into the model, I can make predictions of future species occurrence. The results help us to understand how climate change will affect species, and how we should prepare for those changes. This type of horizon scanning is important since prevention is often more efficient and economical than trying to repair the already deteriorated situation. In fact, the results are being applied in practice as researchers are currently compiling an updated Red List of Finnish bird species. This list is given to the environmental administration to assist in decision-making. In the presentation I would like to advertise this novel, open-access modelling method and encourage other researchers to apply it for other fauna. I would also like to express the importance of long-term monitoring programs, especially for arctic species, and lastly, show my gratitude as an early career scientist to be able to participate in this event.

 

135-year time series of Atlantic Puffin production is negatively correlated to sea surface temperature: Population control by temperature dependent survival of ectotherm sandeel prey?

Erpur Hansen, South Iceland Nature Research Centre

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) off South Iceland waters fluctuates with the ~70 year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with alternating ~35 years of cold and warm periods. The eastern boundary of the Sub-Polar Gyre (SPG) varies with AMO, the contraction in warm periods opens for a greatly increased flow of warm and saline Atlantic seawater to Iceland and the Norwegian sea. This ecosystem provides an excellent opportunity for studying the ecological effects of large and rapid SST changes (>1° C in less than a decade). This presentation illustrates a strong negative correlation of a chick production of an apex predator, the Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica) with seasonal SST over 135-years. This relationship is hypothetically explained by that the Puffin’s main prey the lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) 0-group survival is negatively related to seasonal SST, especially in winter but also interactively when both winter and summer are warm. The sandeel annual cycle is composed of summer growth period in April-August, and dormant winter period in September-March spent buried in sand. Increased SST accelerates the sandeel´s metabolism and thus the rate of reserve depletion in winter, but during summer reduces energy allocation to growth and reserves. A critical sandeel length threshold Lth, for 0-group sandeel’s was calculated for the recent warm decade and the cold year 1981. The threshold is experimentally determined as the minimum size the 0-group sandeel’s need to attain to ‘survive’ their first winter SST profile [1]. A comparison of the modelled and observed 0-group size revealed that >60% of the fish are shorter than Lth in the warm period but the opposite in the cold year. This analysis supports the ‘ectotherm metabolic survival hypothesis’ and strongly advocates a further analysis as this principle might be of fundamental importance of high latitude ecosystem responses to climate change. 1. van Deurs, M., M. Hartvig, and J.F. Steffensen, Critical threshold size for overwintering sandeels (Ammodytes marinus). Marine Biology, 2011. 158: p. 2755-2764.

 

An international network for large-scale tracking of seabirds in the Northeast Atlantic – SEATRACK

Hallvard Strøm, Norwegian Polar Institute; Børge Moe, Norwegian Institute for Nature Management

Seabirds are important components of Arctic ecosystems, and are culturally and economically important for many communities. Many seabird species conduct extensive seasonal migrations, often between different marine ecosystems or between marine areas under different national jurisdictions. Until recently, it has been difficult to follow the seasonal movements of seabirds, making it particularly demanding to identify potential environmental threats to seabird populations during the critical non-breeding period. However, the recent development of Global Location Sensor (GLS) loggers has greatly enhanced our ability to track seabirds during this period, making it possible to document "hotspots" and characterize the at-sea ecology of seabirds as proposed by the Arctic Migratory Bird Initiative (AMBI). This new technology links breeding populations to their non-breeding habitats, providing essential information to marine spatial planning and seabird conservation. However, to take full advantage of this development there is need for a multi-year/-site/-species design. The SEATRACK program (2014-2018) with participants from Norway, UK, Faroes, Iceland and Russia aim to identify the year-round distribution and movements of 11 species of seabirds breeding in 36 colonies encircling the Northeast Atlantic (i.e. the Barents, Norwegian and North Seas). Output from the program include maps of important marine habitats for the different populations, and quantification of how changes in environmental conditions in non-breeding areas affect demographic trends. By 2017 almost 9,000 loggers had been deployed and data from 3,200 retrieved loggers have been analyzed and compiled. The data are available at the SEATRACK web application (http://seatrack.seapop.no/map/). The design and major data products from the SEATRACK program are presented as well as visualizations of the seasonal marine habitats and migration pattern of Atlantic puffins, Brünnich’s guillemots, common guillemots and black-legged kittiwakes.

 

CC2: Biodiversity and climate change: impacts on non-marine ecosystems

Date: Wednesday October 10, 2018

Location: Saivo, Lappia Hall

Time: 15:15-17:15

Freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems are undergoing multiple drivers of change. As the Arctic warms and the tundra greens, entire regime shifts, diversity and assemblages may change. This session explores how any why terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are changing, the diverse responses to drivers, and the resulting implications for biodiversity and management, including the exploration of possible tipping points and surprise cascading effects.

 

Chairs: Arkady Tishkov, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences; Leigh Welling, US National Park Service

Format: Series of presentations, followed by question/answer and discussion

Presentations:

  1. Biodiversity in heathlands and barrens of Nova Scotia, Canada: islands of “Subarctic” vegetation in temperate and boreal zones: Jeremy Lundholm, Saint Mary's University pdf
  2. Responses of tundra carbon cycling and storage to reindeer-induced vegetation transition: Henni Ylänne, Lund University pdf
  3. Greening of the tundra as a driver of the current trends in the Arctic biota: Russian Perspective: Elena Belonovskaya, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences pdf
  4. Geomorphology shapes multidiversity patterns of Arctic vegetation: Miska Luoto, University of Helsinki 
  5. Water as a resource, stress and disturbance shaping tundra vegetation: Julia Kemppinen, University of Helsinki  pdf
  6. The future of Arctic biodiversity is dependent on evolution of the snow cover: Pekka Niittynen, University of Helsinki 
  7. High-potential for a future tipping-point in Arctic land surface conditions: Juha Aalto, University of Helsinki  
  8. Climate and productivity forced regime shifts in subarctic lakes: Kimmo Kahilainen, UiT The Arctic University of Norway 

 


Abstracts

Biodiversity in heathlands and barrens of Nova Scotia, Canada: islands of “Subarctic” vegetation in temperate and boreal zones

Jeremy Lundholm, Saint Mary's University; Caitlin Porter, Saint Mary's University

Barrens in Nova Scotia, Canada are characterized by heaths dominated by low-growing Ericaceous shrubs such as Empetrum spp. and resemble tundra habitats. They represent less than 3% of provincial land area, persisting as isolated islands within a landscape that otherwise consists of temperate or boreal forest biomes. Barrens ecosystems are associated with climatic and geomorphic processes that influence biodiversity, such as frost sorting of rocks, that are more typical of Arctic environments. Inland, coastal and highland barrens contain distinctive vegetation rich in rare species, including many with Arctic or alpine biogeographic affinities, and may represent periglacial relict habitats. These habitats support over 500 species of vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens, but descriptions of the biodiversity in these ecosystems are recent and incomplete, especially in light of current threats that include off-highway vehicle use, hiking trails, housing development and invasive species. Here we describe studies that quantify vegetation patterns at multiple scales and environmental drivers of biodiversity in our region and also present a recently developed vegetation classification. We compare these plant communities with similar vegetation types found in Subarctic and Arctic North America and Europe. Fine-scale plant species richness patterns are most strongly predicted by coastal exposure and average soil moisture levels, whereas at larger spatial scales, plant diversity increases with spatial heterogeneity in elevation, soil depth and moisture. Important influences of fog, frost action, and seasonal snow and ice have yet to be quantified but likely affect the distribution of rare species. The factors that maintain open barrens vegetation in this forested region include climatic limits to soil development and wildfire, but there are also unknown contributions of past human use of the habitats including berry harvesting, sheep grazing and possible influences of extirpated animal grazers (caribou) that may affect long-term vegetation dynamics. Through this presentation we hope to make connections with researchers that study similar vegetation across the Arctic and discuss the possible value of studying climate change effects on Arctic vegetation across a range of latitudes that include the southernmost range limits of dominant plant species. This presentation contributes to Action Item 16 - better identifying drivers and stressors of vegetation change, and Policy Recommendations 12 and 13, as our projects involve quantifying ecosystem services derived from barrens habitats and we fill in major regional knowledge gaps in biodiversity inventory. It will also facilitate inter-disciplinary discussion about human influences on and benefits from Arctic vegetation.

 

Responses of tundra carbon cycling and storage to reindeer-induced vegetation transition

Henni Ylänne, Lund University

In this presentation, I will summarize our findings on the effects of reindeer-induced vegetation transitions on carbon cycling processes and storage. These are monitored in subarctic Northern Norway alongside reindeer pasture rotation fences. At these sites, a yearly pulse of intensive reindeer grazing has turned the vegetation from shrub-dominated towards graminoid-dominated. We monitor the development of ecosystem carbon storage and demonstrate how reindeer grazing can alter the location and total amount of ecosystem carbon. At one of the sites, we also monitor carbon cycling processes on a zone that has recently become graminoid-dominated and show that many of the processes in soils respond to changes in grazing intensity even faster than vegetation-driven processes. The presented data acts as evidence of the potential of grazers to shape tundra processes and carbon storage. It also highlights the need for further studies on the site-specific carbon cycling responses to grazing. This could improve predictions of ecosystem changes across the tundra. Grazer-induced differences in carbon sequestration rates could be incorporated into land-use management, which aims to increase carbon sequestration in tundra soils.

 

Greening of the tundra as a driver of the current trends in the Arctic biota: Russian Perspective

Elena Belonovskaya, Institute of Geography, RAS; Arkadiy Tishkov, Institute of Geography, RAS

In the beginning of the XXI century in tundra growth of plant productivity and vegetative index (NDVI) was revealed (Walker, et. al. 2012; Bhatt, et. al. 2013; Belonovskaya et al., 2016; Tishkov et al., 2016). Comparing of the results of remote sensing and terrestrial investigation in the beginning of the century (2000) and our time (2015) in Russian Arctic shows progressive expansion of the forest vegetation at the northern limit. According to the analysis of satellite images the trend of growth of productivity (more than 25-30%) and increasing of herbaceous plants’ share in the tundra communities were observed. Over the past decade the average value of the NDVI index increased, which reflected the degree of "greening" of the territory, due to an increase in the number and length of the growing period. The main cause of this process is synergism of climatic (permafrost melting, changes in rainfall and snow accumulation) and anthropogenic impact changes. Growing season’s increasing, active temperature sum’s raising and soil melting depth’s deepening result the artic vegetation communities’ structure and life forms spectrum transformation. First of all, the trend of scrub vegetation invasion was recognized for various treeless biomes. This process concerns the increasing of biomass, abundance and cover of tundra shrubs: Betula, Salix, Dusсhekia, Pinus, Juniperus, etc. genera spreading in Russian tundra (Kola Peninsula, Lower Pechora-river, Yakutia). Also the reducing of lichens and mosses, and increasing of grasses coverage were recorded there. The so called "greening" of tundra was also associated with fires and overgrazing of domestic reindeer. Identified current trends in artic vegetation coincided with the changes of distribution and abundance of indicators in terrestrial fauna of Russian Arctic (geese, sandpipers, reindeer, lemmings, polar fox), which could be interpreted as the effects of tundra habitat’s “greening”: for example, the increasing in the abundance and changes in migration routes for geese, stopping 3-4 years oscillates of the lemmings’ population in some regions, the transformation of continuous distribution of reindeer. The obtained results are important for the Artic biodiversity conservation.

 

Geomorphology shapes multidiversity patterns of Arctic vegetation

Miska Luoto, University of Helsinki

Physical disturbances resulting from different earth surface processes (ESP) are often intense in high-latitude systems, affecting the distribution of many species and thereby potentially also the multidiversity patterns of Arctic vegetation. Here, we test whether incorporating field-quantified estimates of five dominant ESPs into baseline species distribution models (based on six climate-topography-soil variables) significantly improves the accuracy of species occurrence and community-level predictions. Species data were recorded in 1200 study sites covering a wide range of environmental conditions characteristic of mountain systems at high-latitudes. Data were collected in northernmost Norway for 460 species from three ecologically different taxonomical groups: vascular plants, mosses, and lichens. Here, we offer multiple lines of evidence that several individual geomorphic processes partly control vegetation characteristics of three species groups, affecting the plot-scale occurrence patterns of individual species, species richness and community composition. Models including geomorphic predictors had higher predictive power than corresponding models without these variables, allowing more realistic estimation of multiple vegetation properties across broad environmental gradients in a high-latitude environment. Our results indicate that different species groups can show a wide variety of responses to warming climate and changing ground-surface conditions depending on species’ ecological and evolutionary characteristics. Multidiversity patterns of Arctic vegetation may be concurrently affected by both increasing temperatures and decreasing disturbance frequency. Our results highlight the need for explicitly including data on earth surface processes in biodiversity models to achieve realistic predictions of vegetation assemblage properties, particularly in areas of varying geomorphological conditions. These findings call for integrated ecological and geophysical approaches to advance our understanding of the long-term impacts of global change on high-latitude systems, enabling realistic forecasts of future Arctic biodiversity. Our results contribute to the implementation of several Arctic Biodiversity Assessment policy recommendations, especially (5) “Advance the protection of large areas of ecologically important marine, terrestrial and freshwater habitats, taking into account ecological resilience in a changing climate”; (13) “Increase and focus inventory, long-term monitoring and research efforts to address key gaps in scientific knowledge identified in this assessment to better facilitate the development and implementation of conservation and management strategies” and (16) “Research and monitor individual and cumulative effects of stressors and drivers of relevance to biodiversity, with a focus on stressors that are expected to have rapid and significant impacts and issues where knowledge is lacking”.

 

Water as a resource, stress and disturbance shaping tundra vegetation

Julia Kemppinen, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Finland – Pekka Niittynen, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Finland – Juha Aalto, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Finland, and Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland – Peter C. le Roux, Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Pretoria, South Africa – Miska Luoto, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Finland | Corresponding author: J. Kemppinen, julia [DOT] kemppinen [AT] helsinki [DOT] fi

The Arctic biodiversity is on the verge of a great change. The hydrological cycle of the Arctic has intensified and the impacts are experienced by vegetation. Plant-available water mediates climate change impacts, namely against rising temperatures and changing snow dynamics. Vegetation is limited by water resources, but water forms also major stress and disturbance. However, climate change impact studies on fine-scale vegetation patterns often cover water inadequately in the Arctic, which is considered as an energy-limited ecosystem. This key gap in knowledge must be addressed for better understanding of the impacts of changing hydrology on the Arctic biodiversity. Thus, we investigated if the inclusion of different water factors improved species distribution models of vascular plants, mosses, and lichens – the cornerstone taxa of the Arctic biodiversity. We collected occurrence data of 289 species on 378 1 m² plots in Fennoscandian mountain tundra. We also recorded eight environmental predictors comprising of direct and resource predictors of the species. The predictors consisted of three water-related factors – namely water resources (soil moisture level), water stress (soil moisture change), and water disturbance (fluvial accumulation and erosion) – and five other factors, namely temperature (growing degree day), nutrients (soil pH), light (radiation), cryogenic processes (solifluction and cryoturbation), and biota (dominant species coverage). The predictive performance of the species distribution models improved, after considering the water-related predictors in the models: the average AUC values for vascular plants increased from 0.807 to 0.836 (P ≤ 0.01), for mosses from 0.687 to 0.727 (not significant), and lichens from 0.667 to 0.668 (not significant). All water aspects represented independent hydrological gradients of the landscape, with evidently differing responses between and within each taxonomical group. Our results highlight the role of water as a multifaceted driver of fine-scale tundra vegetation patterns. While controlling all other key environmental gradients (e.g. temperature), the three water aspects proved to be crucial. Each water aspect had different impacts on the distribution of individual species. Acknowledging the uncertainties in the anticipated rapid and significant changes in tundra hydrology, there are possibly ecological surprises ahead of us. Thus, we stress the inclusion of ecologically meaningful water aspects for improving our knowledge on the fine-scale vegetation patterns in the Arctic.

 

The future of Arctic biodiversity is dependent on evolution of the snow cover

Pekka Niittynen, Risto K. Heikkinen, Miska Luoto, University of Helsinki

Snow is one of the most important ecosystem drivers in Arctic areas, but its effects are often ignored in climate change impact studies. The Arctic warming has been especially strong during the winter months and drastic changes in snow cover dynamics has already been documented through the northern high-latitudes. Yet, it is largely unexplored question whether the local snow conditions can buffer or catalyst the warming induced changes in Arctic biodiversity. Here, we utilized species distribution models for 273 vascular plant, moss and lichen species to test what are the impacts of different rate of change in summer temperatures and snow cover duration (SCD) on Arctic biodiversity. We fitted the models in current conditions and projected the species occurrences across 38 different temperature and snow cover scenarios. We conducted this study in mountainous tundra in northern Norway using plot-scale vegetation data from 1200 study sites. Based on our models, warming increased local species richness but the rate of species losing all suitable habitat was strongly dependent on the degree of change in SCD. The number of local extinctions increased rapidly after a tipping point at 20-30% SCD decrease regardless of the temperature scenario. All three species groups showed similar extinction rates, but contrasting species richness responses, lichens showing a decreasing trend in local species richness. Our results indicate that the future biodiversity in Arctic is dependent on the evolution of snow conditions, which should be carefully considered in climate change impact studies of high-latitude ecosystems. This work is highly relevant in respect to the first of the three cross-cutting themes raised by CAFF: “1) the significance of climate change as the most serious underlying driver of overall change in biodiversity”. In addition, the results are very important to take into account when the implementation of a number of Arctic Biodiversity Assessment policy recommendations are considered in practice, especially:(5) “Advance the protection of large areas of ecologically important marine, terrestrial and freshwater habitats, taking into account ecological resilience in a changing climate”: (7) “Develop and implement mechanisms that best safeguard Arctic biodiversity under changing environmental conditions, such as loss of sea ice, glaciers and permafrost”; (16) “Research and monitor individual and cumulative effects of stressors and drivers of relevance to biodiversity, with a focus on stressors that are expected to have rapid and significant impacts and issues where knowledge is lacking”.

High-potential for a future tipping-point in Arctic land surface conditions

Aalto, J., Riihimäki, H., Niittynen, P., Luoto, M, University of Helsinki

Arctic vegetation patterns are strongly constrained by cryogenic land surface processes (LSP), potentially limiting climate change -induced vegetation redistributions. However, the effect of LSP on productivity has not been previously studied. Here by making use of extensive field-quantified data of LSP (i.e. cryoturbation, solifluction and nivation) and above-ground biomass from the northernmost Fennoscandia, fine-scale (50 m x 50 m) climate and environmental information, we show that LSP are strong controls of Arctic biomass patterns. The three surveyed LSP were found to collectively cause a substantial reduction in above-ground biomass compared to sites not associated with cryogenic disturbance. Importantly, the effect was significant over the productivity gradient, being especially pronounced in climatically sensitive snow-pack environments, where mean reduction of 47 % in biomass was estimated. These findings are important because significant decay of cryogenic processes is expected due to climate change. These changes can lead to a stabilization of ground surface and further allowing for an establishment of vegetation (i.e. Arctic shrubification). Therefore, the disappearance of cryogenic disturbance could trigger highly non-linear change in vegetation productivity and composition suggesting a future tipping-point Arctic land surface conditions. Cryogenic component is critical in future ecosystem and land surface models to understand the Arctic vegetation’s response to climate change and consequent alterations in land surface – atmosphere feedbacks. By providing new understanding of the role of cryogenic land surface processes in controlling Arctic vegetation patterns, our findings promote monitoring and modeling of Arctic biodiversity. They contribute to the implementation of multiple Arctic Biodiversity Assessment policy recommendations, especially (5) “Advance the protection of large areas of ecologically important marine, terrestrial and freshwater habitats, taking into account ecological resilience in a changing climate”; (13) “Increase and focus inventory, long-term monitoring and research efforts to address key gaps in scientific knowledge identified in this assessment to better facilitate the development and implementation of conservation and management strategies” and (16) “Research and monitor individual and cumulative effects of stressors and drivers of relevance to biodiversity, with a focus on stressors that are expected to have rapid and significant impacts and issues where knowledge is lacking

 

Climate and productivity forced regime shifts in subarctic lakes

Kahilainen, K.K.7,2, Harrod C.3,4, Thomas S.M.5, Eloranta A.P.6, Myllykangas, J-P.2, Siwertsson, A.7, Præbel, K.7, Knudsen, R.7, Amundsen, P-A.7 & Hayden, B.1,2.
1Canadian Rivers Institute, Biology Department, University of New Brunswick, New Brunswick, Canada
2Kilpisjärvi Biological Station, University of Helsinki, Finland
3 Instituto de Ciencias Naturales Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad de Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile
4 Núcleo Milenio INVASAL, Concepción, Chile.
5EAWAG, Switzerland
6NINA, Trondheim, Norway
7UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway

Subarctic habitats are warming faster than any other biome on Earth. Increased temperature and nutrient availability are changing subarctic lakes from pristine, cold, oligotrophic environments to warmer and productive ecosystems often followed increasing biodiversity by range expansion of warmer adapted species. Deciphering the joint effects of temperature and productivity on functioning of these sentinel ecosystems provides an opportunity to predict its effects across the wider subarctic. We made a space for time substitution study composing of stable isotope (δ13C, δ15N), diet and abundance datasets of 30 subarctic lakes food webs spanning a temperature (+3˚C), precipitation (+30%) and nutrient (+45 µg/L total phosphorus) gradient equating to predicted future climate scenarios for subarctic Europe. The results show that increasing temperature and productivity changed the energy pathways causing a regime shift from benthic to pelagic resource reliance in subarctic lake food webs. Actually, the largest increases were evident in benthic feeding taxa, indicating that pelagic-benthic coupling becomes increasingly important to benthic consumers. The results indicate the ecosystem level change is not only run by increased biodiversity originating from range expansion of more pelagic species, but is rather reinforced by regime shift from benthic to pelagic energy fuelling the food webs.

CC3: Building social-ecological resilience

Date: Friday October 12, 2018

Location: Tieva, Lappia Hall

Time: 10:30-12:00

Resilience is the ability of a system to bounce back and thrive during and after disturbances and shocks. It is a cross-cutting topic which has become increasingly important to the Arctic Council in the face of rapid changes. Social and ecological systems in the Arctic are inextricably linked, and some aspects of these systems are changing fundamentally and surpassing thresholds which may be irreversible. Residents of the Arctic have always adapted to environmental changes, but the current rate and intensity of climate change, combined with other social, environmental, economic and political shifts and constraints, make adaptation extremely challenging in today’s Arctic. This session explores approaches and partnerships to foster social-ecological resilience.

 

Chairs: Marcus Carson, Stockholm Environment Institute / Government of Sweden; Saara Lilja-Rothsten, Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry, Government of Finland

Format: Series of presentations followed by discussion

Presentations:

  1. The Arctic Resilience Action Framework - moving from insight to action: Marcus Carson, Stockholm Environment Institute / Government of Sweden pdf
  2. The Arctic Resilience Forum 2018 Lessons learned: Saara Lilja-Rothsten, Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry, Government of Finland pdf
  3. Herder’s knowledge and repeated measurements of reindeer use set the baseline for understanding reindeer impact on woody taxa: Anna Skarin, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences pdf
  4. Sustainable and resilient reindeer husbandry in an increasingly uncertain world: A comparative analysis with yak herding in Tibetan plateau: Mia Landauer, Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Finland pdf

 


Abstracts

The Arctic Resilience Action Framework - moving from insight to action

Marcus Carson, Stockholm Environment Institute / Government of Sweden

There are different modes of change relevant to the Arctic, across multiple scales. This presentation discusses how these modes link with the Arctic Resilience Action Framework, how different modes of change can be fostered and supported, and how they might impact biodiversity positively.

 

The Arctic Resilience Forum 2018 Lessons learned

Saara Lilja-Rothsten, Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry, Government of Finland

The Arctic Resilience Forum will be held in Rovaniemi, Finland on 10-11 September 2018. The Forum is part of the implementation of the Arctic Resilience Action Framework (ARAF). In ARAF, Resilience is defined as an ability of a system to bounce back and thrive during and after disturbances and shocks. Resilience is a cross-cutting issue that is increasingly important for the Arctic Council. Arctic States, Permanent Participants, and all six of the Arctic Council Working Groups are involved in activities that build resilience. A resilience approach emphasizes interlinked social-ecological systems; interdisciplinary collaboration; the integration of scientific disciplines and knowledge and learning systems; interactions across local, regional, national and international scales; and the bridging of knowledge, policy and practice. The aim of the Forum is to enhance understanding of Arctic resilience through examples of best practices and to promote implementation of Arctic solutions and co-operation opportunities to strengthen resilience. The key issue is to create the conditions to strengthen resilience and adaptability of actors in the Arctic regions. The arctic area has high vulnerability due to the climate change thus it is essential to disseminate best practices and tools for adapting to climate change and to manage climate and weather related impacts that are posed by a rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic resilience forum will increase the arctic collaboration by bridging of knowledge, policy and practice. The lessons learned from the forum be represented, discussions from an open seminar on the first day and from the workshops from the second day to the Arctic Council´s Working Groups and other key Arctic stakeholders. The focus is to find, analyze and share the concrete tools available for the urgently needed immediate resilience building in the Arctic.

 

Herder’s knowledge and repeated measurements of reindeer use set the baseline for understanding reindeer impact on woody taxa

Anna Skarin, Anna Skarin, SLU (SE), Timo Kumpula, UEF (FI), Marc Macias-Fauria, Univ of Oxford (UK), Mariana Verdonen, UEF (FI), Bruce Forbes, Arctic Centre (FI)

Rapid climate change in Arctic regions has been linked to the expansion of trees and shrubs: the tundra is becoming greener. Reindeer have been proposed as potentially being able to suppress this greening through grazing. Quantifying reindeer use of different vegetation types in relation to landscape topography can help us understand reindeer impact on the growth of woody taxa (e.g. Salix spp.) and their recruitment in naturally denuded landslide areas (i.e. active layer detachment slides). This is important in order to project future patterns of greening, albedo, snow capture, and the overall resilience of tundra rangelands under further predicted climate change. Here we show results of reindeer habitat use in a tundra region of West Siberia, Russia described by an elder reindeer herder and estimated from pellet-group counts. Participatory observations and interviews were performed in July 2015 following a private herder migrating through Yamal peninsula. In July 2013, 2014, and 2017 we did repeated counting of pellets and measurement of shrub height within 212 15-m2 plots, over a 30-km2 landslide-rich area, close to the migration route. In 2013, the plots were established and we removed old pellets out of the plots. Salix leaves and young twigs comprise an important source of forage for migratory reindeer. Our pellet-group count show high use by the reindeer of dwarf shrub (ridge-top) tundra: exposed ridges provide insect relief during summer when wind is sufficient, and willows on ridge-tops tend to be low erect or prostrate forms with strong evidence of grazing and trampling. However, the reindeer do not stop and browse shrubs, the herder state, "In general, reindeer eat small plants and leaves from tips of the shrubs here and there without stopping". Although the pellet-group count show less use of more concave areas (e.g. old landslides) with tall Salix, these areas are also important during warm weather, as there are fewer insects under the shrubs. During interviews we were told, “They go into willow bushes because they can find there plenty of leaves [showing herbs and graminoids]. Also, there are almost no mosquitos under bushes and they can use willow branches to scratch the insects from their antlers”. Our results indicate that reindeer have most impact on low erect shrubs, while they seem less probable to browse high erect Salix, as they go underneath for insect relief and grazing of the ground vegetation and not to browse the top of the plant.

 

Sustainable and resilient reindeer husbandry in an increasingly uncertain world: A comparative analysis with yak herding in Tibetan plateau

Mia Landauer, Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Finland; Wei Lu, Risk and Resilience Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, Ziyun Zhu, Peking University

For thousands of years, circumpolar indigenous peoples and their semi-domesticated herds of reindeer have been part of the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem. Together they play an important role in driving ecosystems changes in various Arctic regions and at the same time cope with and adapt to the changes, forming a unique coupled social-ecological system. Establishment of modern nation states across the circumpolar regions in the past centuries, especially after World War II, has significantly changed reindeer husbandry, as well as its relationship to ecosystems changes. Managing reindeer herding sustainably and resiliently to support the realizations of both conservation (i.e., Convention on Biological Diversity and Aichi Biodiversity Targets) and development goals (i.e., Sustainable Development Goals) in the Arctic is a daunting challenge, especially considering the increasing level of uncertainty from climatic changes and globalization. Yak herding in Tibetan plateau faces similar situation, and various policies have been designed and implemented to enhance the habitat quality of yaks and wild herbivores and the resilience of alpine pasture systems. We conduct a comparative analysis of reindeer herding in northern Fennoscandia and yak herding in Tibetan plateau. We apply a multi-tiered Social-Ecological Systems Framework to demonstrate a range of similarities and dissimilarities on the generic characteristics of the two pasturing systems, including the resources, ecosystems, governance and key actors. We further zoom into two cases, one in Northern Finland and one in the Sanjiangyuan National Park in China, to elaborate the specific processes and elements that lead to past and recent changes of tundra/alpine pasture ecosystems as well as the cultural and livelihood systems. We specifically highlight the changing roles of herders and ecosystem-based management. We believe that cross-learning potential between reindeer and yak pasturing systems is significant; exploiting this potential can substantially improve understanding of these complex social-ecological systems and inform the design and implementation of effective policies and practices to enhance their resilience in the face of climate and global change. This study promotes sustainable management of the Arctic's living resources and their habitat, and contributes to development of sustainable and resilient reindeer husbandry by means of integrating traditional knowledge and science.

 

 

LAVVU1: Nomadic herders lavvu dialogue

Join Arctic youth and Indigenous leaders in the lavvu as they discuss observations of change and solutions for sustainable use of Arctic resources. LEARN MORE

Chairs: Svein Mathiesen, International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry; Katherine Johnsen, GRID Arendal; Gunn-Britt Retter, Saami Council

Location: Outside Lappia Hall
Date: Thursday October 11, 2018
Time: 10:30-12:30

                     

Activity: Bird nesting boxes and insect hotels

Join staff from Metsähallitus, Metsähallitus Forestry Ltd and Science centre Pilke to construct bird boxes and insect hotels. Participants can take their boxes and hotels home with them, or they can donate them local schools, who will take them into the forests and monitor their use. LEARN MORE.

Bird nesting box. photo: Timo Tahvonen

Chairs: Timo Tahvonen with Science centre Pilke inspirers, Metsähallitus

Location: Outside Lappia Hall 
Date: Tuesday October 9-Thursday October 11, 2018
Time: 12:00-15:00, while supplies last


The form and content of the Congress program is under development, with guidance from the Program Advisory Committee, but is expected to include the above elements. In order to allow for some adjustments, including further input from the Program Advisory Committee, Congress organizers reserve the right to make changes to the preliminary program. Such changes will be posted on this Congress website.

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